Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Paddy Holohan
Louis Smolka
57%
43%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
28
Age
Δ 3y
24
13-2-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
18-9
W2
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Holohan: 16 sig / 4 TD ·
Smolka: 59 sig / 0 TD
Paddy Holohan
Louis Smolka
34
Sig strikes landed
40
82
Sig strikes attempted
95
57
Total strikes landed
67
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
6.7
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
222s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Paddy Holohan
"The Hooligan"
13-2-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
W2
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—