Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Bubba Bush
Garreth McLellan
57%
43%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
8-3
Career record
Δ 8 pp
13-7
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Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Bush: 8 sig / 3 TD ·
McLellan: 97 sig / 2 TD
Bubba Bush
Garreth McLellan
27
Sig strikes landed
23
41
Sig strikes attempted
44
40
Total strikes landed
41
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
94s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bubba Bush
"The Fightin' Texas Aggie"
8-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Blue corner
L1
Garreth McLellan
"Soldier Boy"
13-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
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