Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cathal Pendred
Tom Breese
58%
42%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 4y
24
17-5-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
13-3
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pendred: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Breese: 23 sig / 0 TD
Cathal Pendred
Tom Breese
23
Sig strikes landed
28
49
Sig strikes attempted
59
32
Total strikes landed
40
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
141s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cathal Pendred
"The Punisher"
17-5-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
W1
Tom Breese
13-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—