Back to UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
Prelims2 Lightweight

Joaquim Silva vs Nazareno Malegarie

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Joaquim Silva
Nazareno Malegarie
45% 55%
Why
27
Age
Δ 3y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Silva: 49 sig / 0 TD · Malegarie: 58 sig / 1 TD
Joaquim Silva
Nazareno Malegarie
37
Sig strikes landed
50
105
Sig strikes attempted
111
53
Total strikes landed
70
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Joaquim Silva

"Netto BJJ"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner

Nazareno Malegarie

"El Tigre"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
29