Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francis Carmont
Anthony Ruiz
68%
32%
Why
34
Age
Δ 4y
38
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 2
Francis Carmont
Anthony Ruiz
49
Sig strikes landed
36
97
Sig strikes attempted
90
62
Total strikes landed
48
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
94s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francis Carmont
"Limitless"
26-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 135: Warren vs. Galvao
—
Blue corner
Anthony Ruiz
"El Toro"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38