Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Thomson
Mike Bronzoulis
84%
16%
Why
37
Age
Δ 0y
37
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Thomson: 27 sig / 4 TD ·
Bronzoulis: 12 sig / 0 TD
Josh Thomson
Mike Bronzoulis
44
Sig strikes landed
42
110
Sig strikes attempted
111
59
Total strikes landed
56
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
126s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
Blue corner
Mike Bronzoulis
"The Greek"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
37