Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Liam McGeary
Tito Ortiz
88%
12%
Why
33
Age
Δ 8y
41
13-2
Career record
Δ 26 pp
20-12-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
McGeary: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Ortiz: 4 sig / 0 TD
Liam McGeary
Tito Ortiz
54
Sig strikes landed
47
143
Sig strikes attempted
124
63
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
96s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Liam McGeary
13-2
Career record
Height
78"
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 134: The British Invas…
—
Blue corner
W1
Tito Ortiz
"The People's Champ"
20-12-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 131: Tito vs Bonnar
—