Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
AJ McKee
James Barnes
76%
24%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
AJ McKee
James Barnes
47
Sig strikes landed
39
115
Sig strikes attempted
84
89
Total strikes landed
45
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
7.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
AJ McKee
"Mercenary"
9-0
Career record
Height
70"
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 136: Brooks vs. Jansen
—
Blue corner
James Barnes
"Mooka"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33