Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Barnett
Roy Nelson
91%
9%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
38
Age
Δ 1y
39
35-9
Career record
Δ 20 pp
22-15
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Barnett: 146 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 60 sig / 4 TD
Josh Barnett
Roy Nelson
56
Sig strikes landed
19
80
Sig strikes attempted
40
103
Total strikes landed
38
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Barnett
"The Warmaster"
35-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—