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Misha Cirkunov vs Daniel Jolly

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira ·SaskTel Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Misha Cirkunov
Daniel Jolly
68% 32%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
28
Age
Δ 2y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cirkunov: 24 sig / 3 TD · Jolly: 6 sig / 0 TD
Misha Cirkunov
Daniel Jolly
37
Sig strikes landed
32
77
Sig strikes attempted
68
60
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Misha Cirkunov

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Daniel Jolly

"The Werewolf of Texas"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31