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Main Flyweight

Ray Borg vs Geane Herrera

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Ray Borg
Geane Herrera
66% 34%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
22
Age
Δ 3y
25
W2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Borg: 26 sig / 3 TD · Herrera: 7 sig / 0 TD
Ray Borg
Geane Herrera
24
Sig strikes landed
19
45
Sig strikes attempted
33
51
Total strikes landed
36
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.5
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
414s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
39%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Ray Borg

"The Tazmexican Devil"
14-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
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W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
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L UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
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Blue corner

Geane Herrera

"La Pulga"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25