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Mickael Lebout vs Teemu Packalen

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites ·The SSE Hydro
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Mickael Lebout
Teemu Packalen
65% 35%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lebout: 43 sig / 0 TD · Packalen: 35 sig / 3 TD
Mickael Lebout
Teemu Packalen
49
Sig strikes landed
44
102
Sig strikes attempted
107
59
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
84s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Mickael Lebout

"Ragnar"
16-8-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
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Blue corner

Teemu Packalen

"Pacu"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28