Prelims1
Middleweight
Josh Samman vs Caio Magalhaes
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Samman
Caio Magalhaes
67%
33%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
27
Age
Δ 0y
28
14-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-3
W2
Current streak
W4
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Samman: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Magalhaes: 3 sig / 0 TD
Josh Samman
Caio Magalhaes
26
Sig strikes landed
16
55
Sig strikes attempted
32
35
Total strikes landed
21
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
108s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Josh Samman
"Anqa"
14-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
W4
Caio Magalhaes
"Hellboy"
11-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—