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Prelims1 Welterweight

Steve Montgomery vs Tony Sims

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero ·Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Steve Montgomery
Tony Sims
59% 41%
Why
24
Age
Δ 5y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Montgomery: 9 sig / 0 TD · Sims: 10 sig / 0 TD
Steve Montgomery
Tony Sims
36
Sig strikes landed
35
80
Sig strikes attempted
70
50
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
116s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Steve Montgomery

"The Creepy Weasel"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner

Tony Sims

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30