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Prelims1 Welterweight

Alex Oliveira vs Joe Merritt

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero ·Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Joe Merritt
73% 27%
Why
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Oliveira: 11 sig / 5 TD · Merritt: 23 sig / 0 TD
Alex Oliveira
Joe Merritt
31
Sig strikes landed
26
64
Sig strikes attempted
52
48
Total strikes landed
36
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
215s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alex Oliveira

"Cowboy"
23-12-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
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L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
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Blue corner

Joe Merritt

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31