Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brennan Ward
Roger Carroll
88%
12%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ward: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Carroll: 16 sig / 0 TD
Brennan Ward
Roger Carroll
46
Sig strikes landed
38
98
Sig strikes attempted
91
60
Total strikes landed
37
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brennan Ward
"The Irish Bad Boy"
15-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 134: The British Invas…
—
Blue corner
Roger Carroll
"The Leprechaun"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"