Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Douglas Lima
Andrey Koreshkov
85%
15%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Lima: 48 sig / 1 TD ·
Koreshkov: 71 sig / 8 TD
Douglas Lima
Andrey Koreshkov
42
Sig strikes landed
46
109
Sig strikes attempted
108
59
Total strikes landed
66
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
135s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Douglas Lima
"The Phenom"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
28
Blue corner
Andrey Koreshkov
"Spartan"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
25