Prelims1
Bantamweight
Eddie Wineland vs Bryan Caraway
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Eddie Wineland
Bryan Caraway
44%
56%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
24-17-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
21-10
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wineland: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Caraway: 61 sig / 0 TD
Eddie Wineland
Bryan Caraway
39
Sig strikes landed
36
97
Sig strikes attempted
107
52
Total strikes landed
52
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
31s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Eddie Wineland
24-17-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
Blue corner
L1
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—