Prelims2
Lightweight
Daron Cruickshank vs James Krause
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daron Cruickshank
James Krause
25%
75%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
18-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
28-10
L1
Current streak
L2
11
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cruickshank: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Krause: 10 sig / 1 TD
Daron Cruickshank
James Krause
40
Sig strikes landed
49
96
Sig strikes attempted
111
53
Total strikes landed
70
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Daron Cruickshank
"Detroit Superstar"
18-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
Blue corner
L2
James Krause
"The"
28-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—