Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Paul Felder
57%
43%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
30
Age
Δ 2y
31
24-15
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-6
L1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barboza: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Felder: 47 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Paul Felder
49
Sig strikes landed
45
121
Sig strikes attempted
108
56
Total strikes landed
52
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
50s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
Blue corner
W2
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
18-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—