Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Greg Scott
Gaston Reyno
69%
31%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Scott: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Reyno: 10 sig / 0 TD
Greg Scott
Gaston Reyno
41
Sig strikes landed
42
85
Sig strikes attempted
93
48
Total strikes landed
59
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Greg Scott
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Blue corner
Gaston Reyno
"Tonga"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
29