Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Taylor Lapilus
Yuta Sasaki
74%
26%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
23
Age
Δ 2y
26
22-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
21-7-2
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lapilus: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Sasaki: 16 sig / 1 TD
Taylor Lapilus
Yuta Sasaki
32
Sig strikes landed
33
66
Sig strikes attempted
101
56
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
114s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Taylor Lapilus
"Double Impact"
22-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
Blue corner
L1
Yuta Sasaki
"Ulka"
21-7-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—