Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Luiz Dutra
Tom Breese
36%
64%
Why
33
Age
Δ 9y
24
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dutra: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Breese: 26 sig / 0 TD
Luiz Dutra
Tom Breese
21
Sig strikes landed
32
41
Sig strikes attempted
62
33
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Luiz Dutra
"Besouro"
13-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—
Blue corner
Tom Breese
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24