Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kevin Ferguson
Ken Shamrock
57%
43%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
41
Age
Δ 10y
51
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ferguson: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Shamrock: 2 sig / 2 TD
Kevin Ferguson
Ken Shamrock
35
Sig strikes landed
41
81
Sig strikes attempted
71
46
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
151s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kevin Ferguson
"Kimbo Slice"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
Blue corner
Ken Shamrock
"The World's Most Dangerous Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
51