Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Nolan Ticman
Yao Zhikui
53%
47%
Why
27
Age
Δ 3y
24
4-4
Career record
Δ 21 pp
2-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ticman: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Zhikui: 9 sig / 1 TD
Nolan Ticman
Yao Zhikui
30
Sig strikes landed
26
55
Sig strikes attempted
53
46
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
96s
Control time
239s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nolan Ticman
4-4
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
L1
Yao Zhikui
"The Conqueror"
2-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—