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Prelims1 Featherweight

Taylor Lapilus vs Rocky Lee

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Taylor Lapilus
Rocky Lee
90% 10%
Why
23
Age
Δ 5y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lapilus: 80 sig / 2 TD · Lee: 37 sig / 1 TD
Taylor Lapilus
Rocky Lee
38
Sig strikes landed
25
75
Sig strikes attempted
61
68
Total strikes landed
36
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
193s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Taylor Lapilus

"Double Impact"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner

Rocky Lee

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28