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Gabriel Gonzaga vs Mirko Filipovic

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 ·Tauron Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gabriel Gonzaga
Mirko Filipovic
26% 74%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
36
Age
Δ 5y
41
17-12
Career record
Δ 13 pp
35-12-2
L2
Current streak
L3
9
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Gonzaga: 19 sig / 2 TD · Filipovic: 21 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Gonzaga
Mirko Filipovic
28
Sig strikes landed
25
54
Sig strikes attempted
48
36
Total strikes landed
40
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
90s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Gabriel Gonzaga

"Napao"
17-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
L3

Mirko Filipovic

"Cro Cop"
35-12-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
L UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
L UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—