Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jorge Masvidal
Al Iaquinta
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
36-17
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-7-1
W3
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Masvidal: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Iaquinta: 55 sig / 0 TD
Jorge Masvidal
Al Iaquinta
59
Sig strikes landed
53
136
Sig strikes attempted
130
80
Total strikes landed
67
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
Blue corner
W3
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—