Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Ricardo Lamas
63%
37%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
18-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-8
L1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mendes: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Lamas: 8 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Ricardo Lamas
30
Sig strikes landed
27
71
Sig strikes attempted
74
41
Total strikes landed
41
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
97s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chad Mendes
"Money"
18-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
Blue corner
W2
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—