Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Sperling
Paul Ruiz
81%
19%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sperling: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Ruiz: 1 sig / 0 TD
Nick Sperling
Paul Ruiz
40
Sig strikes landed
42
94
Sig strikes attempted
93
49
Total strikes landed
56
3.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
179s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Sperling
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Paul Ruiz
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Age
28