Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tito Ortiz
Stephan Bonnar
54%
46%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
40
Age
Δ 2y
38
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ortiz: 63 sig / 5 TD ·
Bonnar: 65 sig / 0 TD
Tito Ortiz
Stephan Bonnar
37
Sig strikes landed
38
74
Sig strikes attempted
80
51
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
121s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tito Ortiz
"The People's Champ"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
Blue corner
Stephan Bonnar
"The American Psycho"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38