Prelims2
Lightweight
Ivan Jorge vs Josh Shockley
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
·Ginasio Gigantinho
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ivan Jorge
Josh Shockley
79%
21%
Why
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
27-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jorge: 25 sig / 3 TD ·
Shockley: 22 sig / 0 TD
Ivan Jorge
Josh Shockley
35
Sig strikes landed
37
61
Sig strikes attempted
78
76
Total strikes landed
50
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
318s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ivan Jorge
"Batman"
27-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
Blue corner
L1
Josh Shockley
11-5
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—