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Nikita Krylov vs Stanislav Nedkov

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson ·Tele2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Stanislav Nedkov
87% 13%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
23
Age
Δ 10y
33
32-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
12-3
W1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Krylov: 13 sig / 0 TD · Nedkov: 4 sig / 0 TD
Nikita Krylov
Stanislav Nedkov
35
Sig strikes landed
24
70
Sig strikes attempted
30
58
Total strikes landed
35
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
103s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
42%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Nikita Krylov

"The Miner"
32-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
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L UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
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W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
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L UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
L1

Stanislav Nedkov

"Stucky"
12-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
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