Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Benson Henderson
62%
38%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
37-17
Career record
Δ 6 pp
24-8
W6
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerrone: 57 sig / 1 TD ·
Henderson: 86 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Benson Henderson
53
Sig strikes landed
62
122
Sig strikes attempted
122
61
Total strikes landed
78
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
31s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
Blue corner
L1
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
24-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—