Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Conor McGregor
Dennis Siver
82%
18%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
26
Age
Δ 10y
36
23-6
Career record
Δ 11 pp
24-11
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
McGregor: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Siver: 32 sig / 0 TD
Conor McGregor
Dennis Siver
43
Sig strikes landed
33
110
Sig strikes attempted
90
51
Total strikes landed
49
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
75s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
Blue corner
W1
Dennis Siver
24-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—