Back to The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Prelims2 Women's Strawweight

Emily Kagan vs Angela Hill

The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Emily Kagan
Angela Hill
66% 34%
Why
33
Age
Δ 4y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kagan: 41 sig / 2 TD · Hill: 107 sig / 0 TD
Emily Kagan
Angela Hill
48
Sig strikes landed
44
107
Sig strikes attempted
102
76
Total strikes landed
80
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
127s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Emily Kagan

0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Age
33
Blue corner

Angela Hill

"Overkill"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30