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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Tecia Pennington vs Angela Magana

The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Angela Magana
73% 27%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
25
Age
Δ 6y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pennington: 96 sig / 1 TD · Magana: 37 sig / 0 TD
Tecia Pennington
Angela Magana
42
Sig strikes landed
41
87
Sig strikes attempted
88
71
Total strikes landed
64
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
177s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tecia Pennington

"Tiny Tornado"
0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Angela Magana

"Your Majesty"
0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31