Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Al Iaquinta
46%
54%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
28
21-16
Career record
Δ 8 pp
15-7-1
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Pearson: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Iaquinta: 31 sig / 0 TD
Ross Pearson
Al Iaquinta
54
Sig strikes landed
56
133
Sig strikes attempted
132
63
Total strikes landed
65
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
68s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
Blue corner
W1
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—