Prelims1
Middleweight
Luke Zachrich vs Daniel Kelly
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping
·Qudos Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Luke Zachrich
Daniel Kelly
67%
33%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
33
Age
Δ 4y
37
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Zachrich: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Kelly: 25 sig / 1 TD
Luke Zachrich
Daniel Kelly
39
Sig strikes landed
37
92
Sig strikes attempted
79
52
Total strikes landed
50
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
65s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Luke Zachrich
15-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
Daniel Kelly
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37