Prelims1
Lightweight
Yves Edwards vs Akbarh Arreola
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
·Frank Erwin Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yves Edwards
Akbarh Arreola
73%
27%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
42-23-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
23-12-1
L3
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Edwards: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Arreola: 12 sig / 1 TD
Yves Edwards
Akbarh Arreola
36
Sig strikes landed
39
88
Sig strikes attempted
87
46
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
116s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Yves Edwards
42-23-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
10 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
L1
Akbarh Arreola
"El Caballero"
23-12-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—