Back to UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
Prelims2 Women's Strawweight

Paige VanZant vs Kailin Curran

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Paige VanZant
Kailin Curran
68% 32%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
21
Age
Δ 3y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
VanZant: 61 sig / 3 TD · Curran: 28 sig / 5 TD
Paige VanZant
Kailin Curran
34
Sig strikes landed
32
80
Sig strikes attempted
75
61
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
170s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Paige VanZant

"12 Gauge"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner

Kailin Curran

0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24