🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Daniel Cormier
88%
12%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 12"
72"
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
29-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-3
W8
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jones: 92 sig / 3 TD ·
Cormier: 58 sig / 1 TD
Jon Jones
Daniel Cormier
79
Sig strikes landed
50
145
Sig strikes attempted
111
114
Total strikes landed
82
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.7
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
254s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 11-0
Last 5
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W4
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
23-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—