Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marco Beltran
Marlon Vera
24%
76%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 6y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Beltran: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Vera: 25 sig / 1 TD
Marco Beltran
Marlon Vera
29
Sig strikes landed
41
67
Sig strikes attempted
84
40
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
116s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marco Beltran
"Psycho"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
22