Main
Welterweight
Rory MacDonald vs Tarec Saffiedine
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
·Scotiabank Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rory MacDonald
Tarec Saffiedine
63%
37%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
20-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
17-7
W2
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
MacDonald: 47 sig / 1 TD ·
Saffiedine: 42 sig / 0 TD
Rory MacDonald
Tarec Saffiedine
70
Sig strikes landed
33
160
Sig strikes attempted
133
84
Total strikes landed
94
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.0
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
111s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
20-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Tarec Saffiedine
"Sponge"
17-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
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