Main
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao vs Bryan Caraway
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
·Scotiabank Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Bryan Caraway
65%
35%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
29-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-9
W6
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Assuncao: 75 sig / 2 TD ·
Caraway: 39 sig / 2 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Bryan Caraway
37
Sig strikes landed
33
84
Sig strikes attempted
89
50
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
75s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
W2
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
22-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—