🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Jose Aldo vs Chad Mendes
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
·Ginasio do Maracanazinho
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Chad Mendes
83%
17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
28
Age
Δ 1y
30
33-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-5
W6
Current streak
W5
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Aldo: 102 sig / 0 TD ·
Mendes: 77 sig / 1 TD
Jose Aldo
Chad Mendes
54
Sig strikes landed
47
136
Sig strikes attempted
113
70
Total strikes landed
63
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
Blue corner
W5
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—