Prelims1
Welterweight
Cathal Pendred vs Gasan Umalatov
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
·Ericsson Globe
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cathal Pendred
Gasan Umalatov
70%
30%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
18-4-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-4-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pendred: 55 sig / 1 TD ·
Umalatov: 38 sig / 0 TD
Cathal Pendred
Gasan Umalatov
29
Sig strikes landed
24
74
Sig strikes attempted
63
52
Total strikes landed
37
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
165s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cathal Pendred
"The Punisher"
18-4-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
W1
Gasan Umalatov
"Cobra"
18-4-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—