Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Akira Corassani
Max Holloway
16%
84%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 9y
23
12-7
Career record
Δ 13 pp
28-9
L1
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Corassani: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Holloway: 31 sig / 0 TD
Akira Corassani
Max Holloway
41
Sig strikes landed
55
87
Sig strikes attempted
126
40
Total strikes landed
64
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
58s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Akira Corassani
12-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W3
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—