Prelims1
Featherweight
Zubaira Tukhugov vs Ernest Chavez
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
·Ericsson Globe
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zubaira Tukhugov
Ernest Chavez
77%
23%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
24
Age
Δ 8y
31
21-6-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tukhugov: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Chavez: 12 sig / 0 TD
Zubaira Tukhugov
Ernest Chavez
48
Sig strikes landed
33
107
Sig strikes attempted
97
60
Total strikes landed
47
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
126s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Zubaira Tukhugov
"Warrior"
21-6-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ernest Chavez
"EJ"
10-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—