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Main Heavyweight

Antonio Silva vs Andrei Arlovski

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski ·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Antonio Silva
Andrei Arlovski
56% 44%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
35
Age
Δ 1y
36
19-12-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
35-24
D1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Silva: 6 sig / 0 TD · Arlovski: 13 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Silva
Andrei Arlovski
22
Sig strikes landed
44
46
Sig strikes attempted
63
32
Total strikes landed
39
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
62s
Control time
221s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
D1

Antonio Silva

"Bigfoot"
19-12-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
D UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
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L UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W1

Andrei Arlovski

"The Pitbull"
35-24 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
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